Polygenic prediction across populations is influenced by ancestry, genetic architecture, and methodology.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) developed from multi-ancestry genome-wide association studies (GWASs), PRSmulti, hold promise for improving PRS accuracy and generalizability across populations. To establish best practices for leveraging the increasing diversity of genomic studies, we investigated how various factors affect the performance of PRSmulti compared with PRSs constructed from single-ancestry GWASs (PRSsingle). Through extensive simulations and empirical analyses, we showed that PRSmulti overall outperformed PRSsingle in understudied populations, except when the understudied population represented a small proportion of the multi-ancestry GWAS. Furthermore, integrating PRSs based on local ancestry-informed GWASs and large-scale, European-based PRSs improved predictive performance in understudied African populations, especially for less polygenic traits with large-effect ancestry-enriched variants. Our work highlights the importance of diversifying genomic studies to achieve equitable PRS performance across ancestral populations and provides guidance for developing PRSs from multiple studies.

Nuclear genetic control of mtDNA copy number and heteroplasmy in humans.

Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) is a maternally inherited, high-copy-number genome required for oxidative phosphorylation1. Heteroplasmy refers to the presence of a mixture of mtDNA alleles in an individual and has been associated with disease and ageing. Mechanisms underlying common variation in human heteroplasmy, and the influence of the nuclear genome on this variation, remain insufficiently explored. Here we quantify mtDNA copy number (mtCN) and heteroplasmy using blood-derived whole-genome sequences from 274,832 individuals and perform genome-wide association studies to identify associated nuclear loci. Following blood cell composition correction, we find that mtCN declines linearly with age and is associated with variants at 92 nuclear loci. We observe that nearly everyone harbours heteroplasmic mtDNA variants obeying two principles: (1) heteroplasmic single nucleotide variants tend to arise somatically and accumulate sharply after the age of 70 years, whereas (2) heteroplasmic indels are maternally inherited as mixtures with relative levels associated with 42 nuclear loci involved in mtDNA replication, maintenance and novel pathways. These loci may act by conferring a replicative advantage to certain mtDNA alleles. As an illustrative example, we identify a length variant carried by more than 50% of humans at position chrM:302 within a G-quadruplex previously proposed to mediate mtDNA transcription/replication switching2,3. We find that this variant exerts cis-acting genetic control over mtDNA abundance and is itself associated in-trans with nuclear loci encoding machinery for this regulatory switch. Our study suggests that common variation in the nuclear genome can shape variation in mtCN and heteroplasmy dynamics across the human population.

Genetics of skeletal proportions in two different populations.

Human height can be divided into sitting height and leg length, reflecting growth of different parts of the skeleton whose relative proportions are captured by the ratio of sitting to total height (as sitting height ratio, SHR). Height is a highly heritable trait, and its genetic basis has been well-studied. However, the genetic determinants of skeletal proportion are much less well-characterized. Expanding substantially on past work, we performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of SHR in ∼450,000 individuals with European ancestry and ∼100,000 individuals with East Asian ancestry from the UK and China Kadoorie Biobanks. We identified 565 loci independently associated with SHR, including all genomic regions implicated in prior GWAS in these ancestries. While SHR loci largely overlap height-associated loci (P < 0.001), the fine-mapped SHR signals were often distinct from height. We additionally used fine-mapped signals to identify 36 credible sets with heterogeneous effects across ancestries. Lastly, we used SHR, sitting height, and leg length to identify genetic variation acting on specific body regions rather than on overall human height.

Low and differential polygenic score generalizability among African populations due largely to genetic diversity.

African populations are vastly underrepresented in genetic studies but have the most genetic variation and face wide-ranging environmental exposures globally. Because systematic evaluations of genetic prediction had not yet been conducted in ancestries that span African diversity, we calculated polygenic risk scores (PRSs) in simulations across Africa and in empirical data from South Africa, Uganda, and the United Kingdom to better understand the generalizability of genetic studies. PRS accuracy improves with ancestry-matched discovery cohorts more than from ancestry-mismatched studies. Within ancestrally and ethnically diverse South African individuals, we find that PRS accuracy is low for all traits but varies across groups. Differences in African ancestries contribute more to variability in PRS accuracy than other large cohort differences considered between individuals in the United Kingdom versus Uganda. We computed PRS in African ancestry populations using existing European-only versus ancestrally diverse genetic studies; the increased diversity produced the largest accuracy gains for hemoglobin concentration and white blood cell count, reflecting large-effect ancestry-enriched variants in genes known to influence sickle cell anemia and the allergic response, respectively. Differences in PRS accuracy across African ancestries originating from diverse regions are as large as across out-of-Africa continental ancestries, requiring commensurate nuance.

Global Biobank analyses provide lessons for developing polygenic risk scores across diverse cohorts.

Polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been widely explored in precision medicine. However, few studies have thoroughly investigated their best practices in global populations across different diseases. We here utilized data from Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI) to explore methodological considerations and PRS performance in 9 different biobanks for 14 disease endpoints. Specifically, we constructed PRSs using pruning and thresholding (P + T) and PRS-continuous shrinkage (CS). For both methods, using a European-based linkage disequilibrium (LD) reference panel resulted in comparable or higher prediction accuracy compared with several other non-European-based panels. PRS-CS overall outperformed the classic P + T method, especially for endpoints with higher SNP-based heritability. Notably, prediction accuracy is heterogeneous across endpoints, biobanks, and ancestries, especially for asthma, which has known variation in disease prevalence across populations. Overall, we provide lessons for PRS construction, evaluation, and interpretation using GBMI resources and highlight the importance of best practices for PRS in the biobank-scale genomics era.

Nuclear genetic control of mtDNA copy number and heteroplasmy in humans.

Human mitochondria contain a high copy number, maternally transmitted genome (mtDNA) that encodes 13 proteins required for oxidative phosphorylation. Heteroplasmy arises when multiple mtDNA variants co-exist in an individual and can exhibit complex dynamics in disease and in aging. As all proteins involved in mtDNA replication and maintenance are nuclear-encoded, heteroplasmy levels can, in principle, be under nuclear genetic control, however this has never been shown in humans. Here, we develop algorithms to quantify mtDNA copy number (mtCN) and heteroplasmy levels using blood-derived whole genome sequences from 274,832 individuals of diverse ancestry and perform GWAS to identify nuclear loci controlling these traits. After careful correction for blood cell composition, we observe that mtCN declines linearly with age and is associated with 92 independent nuclear genetic loci. We find that nearly every individual carries heteroplasmic variants that obey two key patterns: (1) heteroplasmic single nucleotide variants are somatic mutations that accumulate sharply after age 70, while (2) heteroplasmic indels are maternally transmitted as mtDNA mixtures with resulting levels influenced by 42 independent nuclear loci involved in mtDNA replication, maintenance, and novel pathways. These nuclear loci do not appear to act by mtDNA mutagenesis, but rather, likely act by conferring a replicative advantage to specific mtDNA molecules. As an illustrative example, the most common heteroplasmy we identify is a length variant carried by >50% of humans at position m.302 within a G-quadruplex known to serve as a replication switch. We find that this heteroplasmic variant exerts cis -acting genetic control over mtDNA abundance and is itself under trans -acting genetic control of nuclear loci encoding protein components of this regulatory switch. Our study showcases how nuclear haplotype can privilege the replication of specific mtDNA molecules to shape mtCN and heteroplasmy dynamics in the human population.

The immune factors driving DNA methylation variation in human blood.

Epigenetic changes are required for normal development, yet the nature and respective contribution of factors that drive epigenetic variation in humans remain to be fully characterized. Here, we assessed how the blood DNA methylome of 884 adults is affected by DNA sequence variation, age, sex and 139 factors relating to life habits and immunity. Furthermore, we investigated whether these effects are mediated or not by changes in cellular composition, measured by deep immunophenotyping. We show that DNA methylation differs substantially between naïve and memory T cells, supporting the need for adjustment on these cell-types. By doing so, we find that latent cytomegalovirus infection drives DNA methylation variation and provide further support that the increased dispersion of DNA methylation with aging is due to epigenetic drift. Finally, our results indicate that cellular composition and DNA sequence variation are the strongest predictors of DNA methylation, highlighting critical factors for medical epigenomics studies.

Challenges and Opportunities for Developing More Generalizable Polygenic Risk Scores.

Polygenic risk scores (PRS) estimate an individual's genetic likelihood of complex traits and diseases by aggregating information across multiple genetic variants identified from genome-wide association studies. PRS can predict a broad spectrum of diseases and have therefore been widely used in research settings. Some work has investigated their potential applications as biomarkers in preventative medicine, but significant work is still needed to definitively establish and communicate absolute risk to patients for genetic and modifiable risk factors across demographic groups. However, the biggest limitation of PRS currently is that they show poor generalizability across diverse ancestries and cohorts. Major efforts are underway through methodological development and data generation initiatives to improve their generalizability. This review aims to comprehensively discuss current progress on the development of PRS, the factors that affect their generalizability, and promising areas for improving their accuracy, portability, and implementation.

Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative: Powering genetic discovery across human disease.

Biobanks facilitate genome-wide association studies (GWASs), which have mapped genomic loci across a range of human diseases and traits. However, most biobanks are primarily composed of individuals of European ancestry. We introduce the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative (GBMI)-a collaborative network of 23 biobanks from 4 continents representing more than 2.2 million consented individuals with genetic data linked to electronic health records. GBMI meta-analyzes summary statistics from GWASs generated using harmonized genotypes and phenotypes from member biobanks for 14 exemplar diseases and endpoints. This strategy validates that GWASs conducted in diverse biobanks can be integrated despite heterogeneity in case definitions, recruitment strategies, and baseline characteristics. This collaborative effort improves GWAS power for diseases, benefits understudied diseases, and improves risk prediction while also enabling the nomination of disease genes and drug candidates by incorporating gene and protein expression data and providing insight into the underlying biology of human diseases and traits.

Multi-ancestry meta-analysis of asthma identifies novel associations and highlights the value of increased power and diversity.

Asthma is a complex disease that varies widely in prevalence across populations. The extent to which genetic variation contributes to these disparities is unclear, as the genetics underlying asthma have been investigated primarily in populations of European descent. As part of the Global Biobank Meta-analysis Initiative, we conducted a large-scale genome-wide association study of asthma (153,763 cases and 1,647,022 controls) via meta-analysis across 22 biobanks spanning multiple ancestries. We discovered 179 asthma-associated loci, 49 of which were not previously reported. Despite the wide range in asthma prevalence among biobanks, we found largely consistent genetic effects across biobanks and ancestries. The meta-analysis also improved polygenic risk prediction in non-European populations compared with previous studies. Additionally, we found considerable genetic overlap between age-of-onset subtypes and between asthma and comorbid diseases. Our work underscores the multi-factorial nature of asthma development and offers insight into its shared genetic architecture.

A Neanderthal Sodium Channel Increases Pain Sensitivity in Present-Day Humans.

The sodium channel Nav1.7 is crucial for impulse generation and conduction in peripheral pain pathways [1]. In Neanderthals, the Nav1.7 protein carried three amino acid substitutions (M932L, V991L, and D1908G) relative to modern humans. We expressed Nav1.7 proteins carrying all combinations of these substitutions and studied their electrophysiological effects. Whereas the single amino acid substitutions do not affect the function of the ion channel, the full Neanderthal variant carrying all three substitutions, as well as the combination of V991L with D1908G, shows reduced inactivation, suggesting that peripheral nerves were more sensitive to painful stimuli in Neanderthals than in modern humans. We show that, due to gene flow from Neanderthals, the three Neanderthal substitutions are found in ∼0.4% of present-day Britons, where they are associated with heightened pain sensitivity.